NFL Conference Championship Predictions

What an odd and thrilling postseason its been so far...

We've seen the rise of Tebowmania in Denver with an upset win over the defending AFC champion Steelers on a single play in overtime, and its subsequent fall at the hands of the Patriots.  We've seen the Packers, a team with only one loss all season, get manhandled by the Giants, a team whose championship hopes seemed rather dim for most of the regular season.  We've seen another heavy favorite to win it all, the Saints, fall to the resurgent 49ers in a game with one of the most exciting and action-packed endings we've seen all year.  We've seen the Texans make themselves known in their first postseason appearance and put up quite a fight against the Ravens and their much-lauded defense.  And like every postseason, we've seen our share of heroes, be they familiar faces like Tom Brady and Ray Lewis, or new ones, like Demariyus Thomas, Vernon Davis, and Hakeem Nicks. 

Now we're down to the final four, but only two can go to Indianapolis to play for the ultimate prize.  Everyone wants to win for different reasons.  San Francisco's Alex Smith and Baltimore's Joe Flacco want to prove that they, too, belong among the elite quarterbacks of the NFL.  New York's Eli Manning would love to have one more Superbowl ring than his older brother.  The Patriots' Bill Belichick has yet another chance to join Pittsburgh's Chuck Noll as the winningest coach in Superbowl history.  The Niners are looking to become just the second team in the league with six Lombardi Trophies in its stadium, and coach Jim Harbaugh could make history as the first rookie head coach to win it all.  And many veteran players would love to pad their resumes - or, for a few nearing retirement, go out with a bang - with one more Superbowl ring.  Whatever the reason, you can bet that all 212 players on the four remaining teams will come hungry - it will all be a matter of who's the hungriest when Sunday comes around.

I've gone 3-for-4 in both rounds this postseason, and now there's just one thing left to do: pick the two teams who will represent their conferences in Super Bowl XLVI.

AFC Championship: Ravens at Patriots
It will be a clash of the titans on Sunday afternoon as Tom Brady and the powerful Patriots offense battle the historically dominant Ravens defense.  Brady has been his usual All-Star self this season, and threw for six touchdowns last week to tie a postseason record.  He has a dynamic array of receivers to throw to, including TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and WR Wes Welker.  All three of these guys could give Baltimore's secondary fits trying to cover them.  The Ravens will need to keep Brady under consistent pressure, a task that they've been one of the best at all season, leading the AFC with 48 sacks.  Ray Lewis, Terell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Haloti Ngata must once again make their presence felt.  On offense, look for Baltimore to rely mostly on Pro Bowl RB Ray Rice to pick up yardage on the ground, which will both slow down the game and keep the pressure off QB Joe Flacco.  The Ravens held their ground against one of the league's better defenses in the Houston Texans last week, so the Patriots' defense, which ranked second-to-last in the league overall and against the pass, should seem like a much easier opponent.  However, New England's secondary is not to be taken lightly - CB Kyle Arrington tied for the league lead in interceptions with 7 this season - and Flacco could find himself in trouble if he's not careful.  In my final analysis, the Ravens are certainly capable of handling whatever the Patriots throw at them (literally or otherwise), have won on the road and in New England in the recent past, and are much more well-rounded than the Patriots are.  It's hard to pick against New England and its offensive juggernaut, but as we've seen time and time again, it's defense that wins championships, and that's where Baltimore has the edge.
Ravens 21, Patriots 17.

NFC Championship: Giants at 49ers 
This is a really tough game to call.  I've been picking the 49ers to win the NFC for most of the season, but the Giants are starting to look more and more like the 2007 team that shocked the world and won the Superbowl.  Eli Manning has been spectacular at quarterback all season for New York, and WR Hakeem Nicks has really stepped up his game in the playoffs, having scored four touchdowns in the first two rounds.  Since the Giants' rushing attack, which was dead last in the league this season, doesn't figure to gain much ground on the Niners' top-ranked run defense, look for them to try to pick up most of their yardage through the air.  The matchup of San Francisco's DB's Carlos Rogers and Dashon Goldson versus New York's outstanding WR's Victor Cruz and Nicks will be an interesting one to watch.  Even more important will be how well the Giants' offensive line can protect Manning against the 49ers' fearsome front seven, which includes DE Justin Smith and LB's Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman, and Patrick Willis, and helped the Niners to tie for the league lead in takeaways with 38 this season.  The Giants have a formidable defensive front of their own, now that Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are once again healthy enough to add to what Pro Bowler Jason Pierre-Paul brings to the table.  On offense, San Francisco must to get as much yardage as they can out of RB's Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter to keep the pressure off QB Alex Smith.  The Niners' passing game has been much-maligned in recent years, but Smith is having one of his best seasons yet and is showing a lot more poise under fire, and TE Vernon Davis, who caught the game-winning touchdown against the Saints last week, has become his go-to guy.  I like what the Giants have done so far this year, but I'm not going to second-guess myself here.  The Niners have a better defense - no knock on New York's, though - and their offense is more well-rounded and better suited to the hard-hitting defensive game that this figures to be. 
49ers 16, Giants 14.  

Enjoy the show, and stay frosty, y'all!

B-)

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

I've never really understood why this week's round of the playoffs is called the Divisional Round.  The division champions were already decided in the regular season, and it doesn't always match two division winners against each other, either (though this season is a rare exception - the first since 2006 and only the second in the last 11+ seasons).  Wouldn't something like "AFC Semifinals" and "NFC Semifinals" be a more appropriate designation for this round?  Regardless, it's time once again for me to make my picks for the weekend, and I gotta say it was pretty hard to motivate myself to get started on this post after watching my Steelers lose a heart-breaker on Sunday evening.  I'm not a journalist, so I'm under no contractual obligation to post this, but I am under a self-imposed moral obligation to finish what I started back in September.  Don't be surprised if this is the last year I post my predictions for every game (at least with this much in-depth analysis). 

Anywhooooo... on to my picks. 

NFC Divisional: Saints at 49ers
The NFL's top offense squares off against NFC's best defense.  The San Francisco 49ers are making their first playoff appearance since 2002 thanks to first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh and the league's second-leading defense.  The Niners have perhaps the best corps of linebackers in the league, a group that includes Pro Bowler Patrick Willis, special teams standout NaVorro Bowman, and Rookie of the Year candidate Aldon Smith.  Justin Smith has been a force at defensive end this season, as have FS Dashon Goldson and CB Carlos Rogers (both of whom are going to the Pro Bowl) in the secondary.  They'll get their biggest test of the season this weekend against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, who looked as strong as ever on offense against Detroit last week.  The Niners' top-ranked run defense will probably take care of RB's Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, so the big question for San Fran will be how well they can handle the Saints' record-breaking passing game.  The best defense for the Niners may be a good offense - the longer they can slow down the game and keep Brees off the field, the better their chances will be to win the game.  Pro Bowl RB Frank Gore can certainly pound the ball, but can Alex Smith get the passing game going when he needs to?  If the Saints' 30th-ranked pass defense is any indication, I'm pretty sure he can.  The Saints have never won a playoff game on the road, and I have a feeling that this weekend will be no exception.
49ers 27, Saints 23.  

NFC Divisional: Giants at Packers 
The Giants came close to beating Green Bay in their last meeting, and if their defense keeps playing like they did in the last two weeks, they just might actually do it this time around.  It took a while before we could finally see them both in action together, but when we did, DE's Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora were quite a force to be reckoned with.  Nevertheless, the Giants will have their hands full with Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his talented corps of receivers, among them Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley.  On the other side, we've got Eli Manning, who has had one of his best seasons yet, and breakout WR Victor Cruz against a Packers defense that has given up more yards than any other team in the league this season.  Sounds like a no-brainer at first, but Green Bay's defense is very opportunistic, and leads the league in both total takeaways and interceptions.  LB Clay Matthews and CB Charles Woodson could give Manning a pretty hard time if he's not careful.  It's pretty tempting to pick the Giants, but what hurts their cause is the inconsistency of their running game, which finished dead last in the league this season.  That won't help the G-Men to slow the game down, which will be crucial if they don't want to force Manning to win a gunfight against Rodgers. 
Packers 35, Giants 24. 

AFC Divisional: Texans at Ravens 
Baltimore and Houston play a very similar style of football.  Both have solid defenses that rank in the top four in the league against the run, against the pass, and overall.  On offense, both like to run the football with their Pro Bowl running backs - Arian Foster for the Texans and Ray Rice for the Ravens.  There are, however, a few things that work in Baltimore's favor: 1) Joe Flacco is a much more experienced quarterback than T.J. Yates, 2) the Ravens are undefeated at home this season,  3) they've had the bye week to rest their players, and 4) they're slightly better than the Texans are at stopping the run - an aspect that will be key to either side winning the game.
Ravens 13, Texans 10.  

AFC Divisional: Broncos at Patriots 
The Patriots are like several of the other top teams that still remain in the playoffs - powerful on offense but absolutely shoddy on defense.  I don't even need to mention anything about Tom Brady, but I will note that Rob Gronkowski has really stepped up his game in his second NFL season, breaking the NFL record for tight ends with 17 touchdowns.  Add in WR Wes Welker and backup TE Aaron Hernandez, and Denver's secondary could be in for a heap of trouble, especially with safety Brian Dawkins still out.  But there's nothing to say that the Broncos can't win this one either, especially after the show that QB Tim Tebow put on last Sunday against the Steelers' top-ranked defense.  Denver certainly has the ability to slow things down with their top-ranked run game, which is powered by both Tebow and RB Willis McGahee, and their defense, led by DE Elvis Dumervil and rookie LB Von Miller, is much better than New England's, which is second-to-last in the league both overall and against the pass.  However, the Broncos will be without their top receiver, Eric Decker, and they have not been able to take charge late in games like they did earlier in the season - they did, after all, blow a 14-point lead last week and had to win it in overtime.  I don't like either team's chances in this game, but since I have to pick a team, I'm going to pick New England. 
Patriots 28, Broncos 20.  

One final thought before I go: Anyone notice that if Aaron Rodgers had thrown those six touchdown passes against the Lions in Week 17 instead of Matt Flynn, he would have broken Tom Brady's record for most touchdown passes in a season?

Stay frosty, y'all! 

B-)

NFL Wild Card Playoff Predictions

The playoffs are finally here!  Time for me to make my picks for the Wild Card round this weekend. 

NFC Wild Card: Falcons at Giants 
Just like last year, the Falcons have been one of those teams that you don't really hear much about, yet are still playing well enough to get into the postseason.  QB Matt Ryan now has an additional target in rookie WR Julio Jones to go along with Roddy White.  In order to win this one, however, they'll need to get some good yardage out of RB Michael Turner, the league's third-leading rusher, in order to take some of the pressure off Ryan that the Giants' formidable pass rush will bring.  New York's defense, led by Pro Bowl DE Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks) and DE's Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, is third in the NFL with 48 sacks this season.  The Giants can also match Atlanta's high-octane passing offense yard for yard.  Eli Manning has been the comeback kid this season, having led his team to five come-from-behind victories in the fourth quarter this season, and WR Victor Cruz has emerged as a key playmaker for the Giants.  Atlanta has the advantage on both offense and defense, but New York has gotten hot at the right time, and Manning knows how to finish strong and win when it counts.  Expect another game-winning fourth quarter drive from the Giants. 
Giants 24, Falcons 21.  

NFC Wild Card: Lions at Saints 
Expect a shootout in the Superdome as two 5000-yard passers square off on Saturday night.  The Saints' Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's long-held single-season passing yardage record with 5476 yards.  But Brees is quick to give credit where it's due, as he has plenty of reliable receivers in WR Marques Colston and Pro Bowl TE Jimmy Graham, as well as a solid offensive line with three Pro Bowlers - Jarhi Evans, Jermon Bushrod, and Carl Nicks - to protect him.  For the Lions, it's been a long time coming, but they've finally made the playoffs for the first time since 1999.  Leading the charge for Detroit are QB Matthew Stafford, who is finally healthy and having his best season yet with 5038 passing yards, and WR Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, the NFL's leading receiver.  Both of these teams rank in the lower half of the league in defense, so this will definitely be a high-scoring game.  The running game will make the biggest difference for either side, and that's where New Orleans has the advantage, averaging about 40 more yards per game on the ground.  Not to mention that the Saints are undefeated at home this season.  It's been a great season for the Lions, but I'm afraid their long-awaited playoff run will be short-lived. 
Saints 41, Lions 35.  

AFC Wild Card: Bengals at Texans 
The Bengals have been one of the biggest surprises this season, having made the postseason when most thought they wouldn't even have a winning record.  Rookie QB Andy Dalton is a proven leader on the field, and WR A.J. Green made the Pro Bowl in his rookie season.  The running back tandem of Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott balances out Cincinnati's offense.  The Bengals' strength, however, is in their defense, which ranked seventh in the league.  The Texans, who are making their first playoff appearance in franchise history, have an excellent defense of their own.  Led by Pro Bowl CB Jonathan Joseph, LB's Brian Cushing, Demeco Ryans, and Connor Barwin; and DE J.J. Watt, Houston's defense ranks second overall, third against the pass, and fourth against the run.  They also pack quite a punch on offense.  Rookie T.J. Yates has filled in admirably at QB for the injured Matt Schaub, and he'll finally have a healthy Andre Johnson to throw to.  RB's Arian Foster and Ben Tate lead a rushing attack that ranks second only to Denver's.  Look for both teams to try to pound it out on the ground throughout most of the game.  The key difference in this game is that the Bengals have yet to show that they can beat a playoff-caliber team - they've gone 0-7 in that regard - whereas Houston has already done so on three occasions this season. 
Texans 10, Bengals 7.  

AFC Wild Card: Steelers at Broncos 
The most talked-about player in the NFL this year has been Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow.  Unless you only started following the NFL last week, you probably already know about Tebow's fourth-quarter heroics and Denver's six-game winning streak.  But the Broncos have struggled in their last three games, and Tebow has never faced a defense like Pittsburgh's, which is tops in the league despite the early-season worries of critics who said that they were getting too old.  The Steelers have a lot of concerns heading into Mile High, the biggest one being the health of Pro Bowl QB Ben Roethlisberger, who re-aggravated a high ankle sprain last week.  They will also be without RB Rashard Mendenhall, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear last week; All-Pro C Maurkice Pouncey (ankle injury); and FS Ryan Clark, whose sickle-cell trait prevents him from playing in Denver's high altitude.  With his play-making mobility limited, Roethlisberger will need to be able to get rid of the ball quickly, whether it's by handing it off to backup RB Isaac Redman, or by making short throws to his speedy Pro Bowl wide receivers, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.  (It worked against the Patriots, so it should work against Denver as well.)  In any case, he can't afford to hold on to the ball too long, as the Broncos boast a very fearsome pass rush.  LB Von Miller is the front-runner for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and has combined with DE Elvis Dumervil for 21 sacks this season.  The Broncos will also rely on their running game, which led the league this season thanks to both Tebow and RB Willis McGahee.  However, if the Steelers' run defense can contain them and force Tebow to throw the ball more, the Broncos could be in a heap of trouble.  Tebow has not been very good in the passing game, and Pittsburgh boasts the top pass defense in the NFL, led by All-Pro SS Troy Polamalu.  LB's Lamar Woodley and James Harrison could wreak havoc on Denver's O-line, which will be without a key piece in G Chris Cuper.  This game could go either way; it will all come down to who steps up their game and who wants it more. 
Steelers 17, Broncos 13. 

NFL 2011 Season Wrap-Up

Just some final thoughts on the 2011 NFL season before the playoffs start. 

I'll start off this post by reflecting on the biggest surprises of the past season:

• The 49ers.  A huge turnaround on both sides of the ball for a team that looked just plain out of it last season.  Most of the credit goes to first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, who should be a shoe-in for Coach of the Year. 
• The Bengals.  No one expected Cincinnati to even have a winning record, let alone be in the playoffs, but once the Bengals jettisoned QB Carson Palmer and trouble-making WR's Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco, they found the team chemistry that they had been lacking in 2010.  Like the 49ers, the Bengals' turnaround can be attributed to the major improvement in the play of their defense this season.  
• The Seahawks and the Cardinals.  Both of these teams got off to bad starts this season and couldn't catch San Francisco for the division, but they somehow found that spark in the second half of the season and went on winning streaks.  Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch was an absolute beast this season, and CB/KR Patrick Peterson gives Arizona a lot to look forward to in the next few years.  
• The Chiefs.  They looked done for the season when they lost Matt Cassell, Jamaal Charles, and Eric Berry, but they stayed in contention for most of the season thanks to their surprisingly stingy defense, and even managed to hand the Packers their only loss of the season.  I see nothing but a bright future for this team.  
• The Panthers.  How about that Cam Newton?  Holy smokes!  If Carolina can just patch up its defense - an easy thing to do in the draft these days - they could be the team to beat pretty soon. 
• And of course, the Broncos.  Most of the hype during Denver's six-game winning streak has been about Tim Tebow, but the Broncos also owe their turnaround in part to their defense, led by DE Elvis Dumervill and LB Von Miller, the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year. 

And now, the biggest disappointments of this season:

• The Eagles.  With all of the talent on defense that they signed in the offseason to complement their explosive offense, everyone thought Philly would be the team to beat this year.  Unfortunately, their passing game was hampered by both Michael Vick's injuries and DeSean Jackson's seeming lack of effort at times, and by the time the defense finally started to play up to expectations, it was just too little too late.  
• The Chargers.  This was the team I was picking to win the Superbowl this year.  They already had the talent on both offense and defense, but their abysmal special teams never improved, and Philip Rivers finished near the top of the league in interceptions.  There's still hope for them next year, but I expected much better from them this year.  
• The Rams.  They came close to winning the NFC West last season thanks to Rookie of the Year Sam Bradford, and were favored by many to win the division this year.  However, Bradford's performance regressed in the few games he played before being sidelined by injuries, and the Rams finished at or near the bottom of the league in almost every category on offense and defense.  
• The Jets.  It started with Mark Sanchez's controversial photo shoot for GQ, and snowballed from there.  The absence of team chemistry became more and more apparent as the season went on, and resulted in a disappointing finish for a team that I thought had the talent to win the AFC East.  
• The Buccaneers.  Hopes were high in Tampa after the Bucs posted 10 wins last season.  Those hopes were soon dashed midway through the season as QB Josh Freeman failed to show any consistency and the defense failed to live up to its potential.  
• The Bills.  They got off to a good start and looked pretty promising, but fell apart midway through the season and won only one game in the second half of the season.

Finally, the final results of my game predictions.  I went 12-4 in the final week of the season, giving me an overall record of 166-90, or 64.8 %. 

Tune in tomorrow for my predictions for the Wild Card round.  Till then, stay frosty, y'all!  B-)