NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

I've never really understood why this week's round of the playoffs is called the Divisional Round.  The division champions were already decided in the regular season, and it doesn't always match two division winners against each other, either (though this season is a rare exception - the first since 2006 and only the second in the last 11+ seasons).  Wouldn't something like "AFC Semifinals" and "NFC Semifinals" be a more appropriate designation for this round?  Regardless, it's time once again for me to make my picks for the weekend, and I gotta say it was pretty hard to motivate myself to get started on this post after watching my Steelers lose a heart-breaker on Sunday evening.  I'm not a journalist, so I'm under no contractual obligation to post this, but I am under a self-imposed moral obligation to finish what I started back in September.  Don't be surprised if this is the last year I post my predictions for every game (at least with this much in-depth analysis). 

Anywhooooo... on to my picks. 

NFC Divisional: Saints at 49ers
The NFL's top offense squares off against NFC's best defense.  The San Francisco 49ers are making their first playoff appearance since 2002 thanks to first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh and the league's second-leading defense.  The Niners have perhaps the best corps of linebackers in the league, a group that includes Pro Bowler Patrick Willis, special teams standout NaVorro Bowman, and Rookie of the Year candidate Aldon Smith.  Justin Smith has been a force at defensive end this season, as have FS Dashon Goldson and CB Carlos Rogers (both of whom are going to the Pro Bowl) in the secondary.  They'll get their biggest test of the season this weekend against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, who looked as strong as ever on offense against Detroit last week.  The Niners' top-ranked run defense will probably take care of RB's Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, so the big question for San Fran will be how well they can handle the Saints' record-breaking passing game.  The best defense for the Niners may be a good offense - the longer they can slow down the game and keep Brees off the field, the better their chances will be to win the game.  Pro Bowl RB Frank Gore can certainly pound the ball, but can Alex Smith get the passing game going when he needs to?  If the Saints' 30th-ranked pass defense is any indication, I'm pretty sure he can.  The Saints have never won a playoff game on the road, and I have a feeling that this weekend will be no exception.
49ers 27, Saints 23.  

NFC Divisional: Giants at Packers 
The Giants came close to beating Green Bay in their last meeting, and if their defense keeps playing like they did in the last two weeks, they just might actually do it this time around.  It took a while before we could finally see them both in action together, but when we did, DE's Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora were quite a force to be reckoned with.  Nevertheless, the Giants will have their hands full with Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his talented corps of receivers, among them Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley.  On the other side, we've got Eli Manning, who has had one of his best seasons yet, and breakout WR Victor Cruz against a Packers defense that has given up more yards than any other team in the league this season.  Sounds like a no-brainer at first, but Green Bay's defense is very opportunistic, and leads the league in both total takeaways and interceptions.  LB Clay Matthews and CB Charles Woodson could give Manning a pretty hard time if he's not careful.  It's pretty tempting to pick the Giants, but what hurts their cause is the inconsistency of their running game, which finished dead last in the league this season.  That won't help the G-Men to slow the game down, which will be crucial if they don't want to force Manning to win a gunfight against Rodgers. 
Packers 35, Giants 24. 

AFC Divisional: Texans at Ravens 
Baltimore and Houston play a very similar style of football.  Both have solid defenses that rank in the top four in the league against the run, against the pass, and overall.  On offense, both like to run the football with their Pro Bowl running backs - Arian Foster for the Texans and Ray Rice for the Ravens.  There are, however, a few things that work in Baltimore's favor: 1) Joe Flacco is a much more experienced quarterback than T.J. Yates, 2) the Ravens are undefeated at home this season,  3) they've had the bye week to rest their players, and 4) they're slightly better than the Texans are at stopping the run - an aspect that will be key to either side winning the game.
Ravens 13, Texans 10.  

AFC Divisional: Broncos at Patriots 
The Patriots are like several of the other top teams that still remain in the playoffs - powerful on offense but absolutely shoddy on defense.  I don't even need to mention anything about Tom Brady, but I will note that Rob Gronkowski has really stepped up his game in his second NFL season, breaking the NFL record for tight ends with 17 touchdowns.  Add in WR Wes Welker and backup TE Aaron Hernandez, and Denver's secondary could be in for a heap of trouble, especially with safety Brian Dawkins still out.  But there's nothing to say that the Broncos can't win this one either, especially after the show that QB Tim Tebow put on last Sunday against the Steelers' top-ranked defense.  Denver certainly has the ability to slow things down with their top-ranked run game, which is powered by both Tebow and RB Willis McGahee, and their defense, led by DE Elvis Dumervil and rookie LB Von Miller, is much better than New England's, which is second-to-last in the league both overall and against the pass.  However, the Broncos will be without their top receiver, Eric Decker, and they have not been able to take charge late in games like they did earlier in the season - they did, after all, blow a 14-point lead last week and had to win it in overtime.  I don't like either team's chances in this game, but since I have to pick a team, I'm going to pick New England. 
Patriots 28, Broncos 20.  

One final thought before I go: Anyone notice that if Aaron Rodgers had thrown those six touchdown passes against the Lions in Week 17 instead of Matt Flynn, he would have broken Tom Brady's record for most touchdown passes in a season?

Stay frosty, y'all! 

B-)