- At the beginning of the season, I certainly expected Baltimore to make the playoffs in one way or another, but I honestly didn't think they'd actually finish second in the AFC North to the Steelers, given how poorly Pittsburgh's secondary performed in 2009, as well as Ben Roethlisberger's suspension for the first four weeks of the season. Surprisingly, their defense buckled down this year and kept them in the running, and Ben fit quite nicely back into the Steelers' lineup when he came back.
- It looked like the Patriots' era of dominance was finally coming to an end after their first-round loss to the Ravens last season, and I predicted that it would be the Jets who would win the AFC East, but New England certainly proved me wrong with one of their best seasons yet, and most experts are predicting, much to my chagrin, that they'll win the Superbowl this year.
- Chicago and Kansas City both engineered surprise turnarounds this season.
- Jacksonville and Oakland also emerged as playoff contenders, returning to respectability much sooner than I'm sure any of us anticipated. The only thing really keeping the Jags from overtaking the Colts for the AFC South were injuries, particularly to running back Maurice Jones-Drew. With a few upgrades on the O-line and defense, the Raiders could be one of teams to beat in the near future. Letting head coach Tom Cable go was a huge mistake. Al Davis should have stuck with the coach who finally turned his team around after years of perennial mediocrity.
- And who can forget Michael Vick's triumphant return to the NFL? He restored life to an Eagles team that otherwise seemed doomed to failure at the start of the season, and probably gave head coach Andy Reid a few extra years on his job.
- The Vikings. This was a team that had one of the best chances to win it all, with a Pro Bowl running back, one of the league's most physical defenses, and a veteran quarterback who had played like a much younger player in 2009. Unfortunately, Brett Favre's age finally caught up with him, and his sub-par performance on the field - as well as his scandals off it - sent the whole team spiraling down the drain. Favre definitely set the Vikings back several seasons. He should have just quit while he was ahead.
- The Cowboys. Another team with the talent on both sides of the ball to make a deep run into the postseason, as well as the motivation to play in the Super Bowl in their own state-of-the-art new facility. But by the time the Cowboys finally found their groove - only after head coach Wade Phillips was fired - it was just too little too late.
- The Texans. They came up just short of a playoff berth in 2009, and things were looking up for them. They had a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in Matt Schaub, one of the NFL's top receivers in Andre Johnson, a talented running back in Steve Slaton, and a defense that was finally starting to come into its own. I thought this team had what it took to win the AFC South. What happened?
- The Chargers. How is it possible for a team that led the NFL in both offense and defense to not make the playoffs?
NFC Wild Card: Saints at Seahawks
The same question is on my mind as everybody else's: How on earth did a team as pitiful as Seattle manage to get into the playoffs? The Seahawks had the worst rushing offense in the league, if you can say it even existed at all; their defense was lackluster at best, and they don't even know who their starting quarterback will be this Saturday - veteran Matt Hasselbeck, who's coming off a hip injury, or the inexperienced Charlie Whitehurst, whose only start came last Sunday against the Rams. (Personally, I'm pulling for Whitehurst, just because he went to Clemson.) The only things working in Seattle's favor are: 1) Qwest Field is one of the most difficult stadiums in the league in which to play, and 2) New Orleans is dealing with injuries to several of their key players. Even so, while it would be interesting to see how far the NFL's first playoff team with a losing record can go, the Saints still have a big edge here. They have Drew Brees, and that's all they'll really need. I'll be on a plane back to Carolina when this game's being played, but I'm pretty sure I'm not going to miss much.
Saints 34, Seahawks 7
NFC Wild Card: Packers at Eagles
Prediction at the start of the season: The Eagles are screwed without Donovan McNabb. Prediction at midseason: Michael Vick could take the Eagles all the way to the Superbowl. At the end of the season, however, I'm not quite as confident making that prediction. Vick's running ability has been hampered by injuries, and he certainly didn't look at his best in his last game, a 24-14 loss to Minnesota. The Eagles' defense has been plagued by injuries and doesn't quite have the experience needed to contend with an offense as good as Green Bay's. The Packers, meanwhile, have picked the right time of the year to catch fire. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has carried the Packers' offense all season with the help of a deep corps of receivers. But the key to the Packers' success this season has been their defense, led by linebacker Clay Matthews, cornerback Charles Woodson, and safety Nick Collins. This is a team that's been getting it done all season, even with starting running back Ryan Grant out for the entire year. They even held their own against top-ranked New England without Rodgers, and they certainly have what it takes to contend with them in the Superbowl. For Philadelphia to win this, Vick, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and running back LeSean McCoy will all need to bring their A-game to out-duel Green Bay's high-octane offense, and the defense will need to take its game to next level. Don't count the Eagles out, but I'm afraid I'm gonna have to give this one to Green Bay.
Packers 24, Eagles 14.
AFC Wild Card: Ravens at Chiefs
The Chiefs have certainly been a pleasant surprise this season. Kansas City boasts the NFL's top rushing offense, led by the league's second-leading rusher, Jamaal Charles. Quarterback Matt Cassel has proven himself a capable leader on offense, and has quite the weapon in receiver Dwayne Bowe. However, the Chiefs face a very formidable opponent in the Baltimore Ravens, who for the last two years have been the road warriors of the postseason. The Ravens picked up a dynamic pair of receivers for QB Joe Flacco this season in former Pro Bowlers Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, making their offense much more well-rounded. That doesn't mean they won't still play physical, because they've also got RB Ray Rice, and let's not forget their punishing defense, led by LB Ray Lewis, safety Ed Reed (who leads the league with 8 interceptions), and DT Haloti Ngata. This is a team that is playoff-tested and ready for anything the Chiefs throw at them. This will be a close, physical game, but in the end, the Ravens have the better defense, and Flacco is a much more experienced leader in the playoffs than Cassel is.
Ravens 17, Chiefs 13.
AFC Wild Card: Jets at Colts
I saved this one for last because, just like last year, this is the most difficult matchup for me to predict. The Jets were my clear-cut pick at the beginning of the season to win the Superbowl, and for a while, it looked like they just might. But now, I'm not so sure, as the Jets have stumbled down the final stretch of the season, losing three of their last five. The Colts, meanwhile, struggled in midseason after injuries to several of their key players (WR Austin Collie and TE Dallas Clark), but have since righted the ship and are playing more like the team that went to the Superbowl a year ago. Peyton Manning has started to look like himself again, and defensive lineman Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis still give Indy a formidable pass rush. So why not just go ahead and pick the Colts outright? I'll tell you why. It's not just because the Jets have upgraded their offense with the additions of former Pro Bowl running back LaDanian Tomlinson and Superbowl XLIII MVP wide receiver Santonio Holmes. It's because of their defense, which happens to be the third best in the NFL. The only caveat here is that cornerbacks Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie are both battling injuries, which could hamper New York's ability to stop the Colts' passing attack. The Colts may have the home field advantage, but the Jets are a much more well-rounded team than Indianapolis is, and are more experienced than they were a year ago. Mark Sanchez may not have been consistent this season, but neither have the Colts. I just can't convince myself that the Colts have what it takes to beat the Jets, even if all the experts say they do, so I'm sticking with my intuition here. I can definitely say that the game will be much closer this time around, and hopefully I'll get back to Clemson in time Saturday to see most of it.
Jets 20, Colts 17.
And finally, here's my predictions for the rest of the playoffs:
NFC Divisional Playoffs:
Packers 24, Falcons 21
Saints 31, Bears 20
AFC Divisional Playoffs:
Patriots 27, Jets 17
Steelers 13, Ravens 10
NFC Championship: Packers 24, Saints 17
AFC Championship: Steelers 24, Patriots 21
Superbowl XLV: Steelers 21, Packers 20
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