2011 NFL Season Preview - Part 2 (AFC)

In my last post, I outlined my picks for the NFC teams, so now it's time for me to make my predictions for the AFC.

AFC East

• Bills - Losing LB Paul Posluszny to the Jaguars hurts their defense a little, but Buffalo's D still shows some promise with players like LB Shawne Merriman and rookie DE Marcell Dareus. On offense, RB C.J. Spiller will need to step up his game this year if the Bills want to compete in a tough division.
  
• Dolphins - Their running game has a lot of potential with Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas, and they've got a couple of playmakers on defense with LB Cameron Wake and CB Vontae Davis, which makes Miami capable of playing a physical game. The big question mark here is with QB Chad Henne, who took a step back last season. With a more consistent performance from Henne, the Dolphins could turn some heads this season.
  
• Patriots - Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth? How many d-bags can you fit on one team? Regardless, New England already had one of the best offenses in the league, as well as a formidable front seven that now benefits from the additions of both Haynesworth and DE Shaun Ellis. Their young secondary, led by CB Devin McCourty, is a year older and a year wiser. If Bill Belichick can straighten out Ochocinco and Haynesworth like he did with Randy Moss, the Patriots could once again be the team to beat this season.
  
• Jets - They may have lost Shaun Ellis to the Patriots, but the Gang Green still have one of the better defenses in the league. CB's Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie will continue to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Mark Sanchez has two new targets in Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason, and has a solid offensive line to protect him.
  

Division Winner: Jets. Yeah, it sounds kinda strange. But New York showed that they could go toe-to-toe with New England in the playoffs last season, and they've got the better defense. I just don't think the Patriots' secondary is ready to handle Sanchez and the Jets' receiving corps just yet. Expect a close battle all season long, with the runner-up taking a wild card spot.

AFC North

• Ravens - Baltimore is trying to get younger, having cut several longtime veterans like Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, and Kelly Gregg. WR Lee Evans gives Joe Flacco a more dynamic target, and Pro Bowler Andre Gurode will bolster the Ravens' offensive line. They'll most likely make the playoffs on the strength of their defense alone, but will the upgrades on offense be enough to get them over the top?
  
• Bengals - Picking up CB Nate Clements should make Cincy's defense more respectable, but their offense has a lot of growing to do, especially with a new quarterback in Andy Dalton.
  
• Browns - RB Peyton Hillis was a pleasant surprise last season, and QB Colt McCoy should give Cleveland fans a lot to look forward to in the next few years, but their defense still needs a little work.
  
• Steelers - There's been a lot of talk about Pittsburgh's defense getting old, but there's nothing to convince me that they won't be as physical as ever. What does concern me, though, is their shoddy play at cornerback, which cost them the Superbowl last year, and their failure to adequately address the situation in the offseason. On offense, though, there shouldn't be any worries, especially since Ben Roethlisberger will be playing a full season this year and has a wide array of receivers to throw to. Keep a close eye on second-year WR Antonio Brown, who looked pretty impressive in the preseason and could have a breakout year.
  

Division Winner: Steelers. You could just as easily convince me that the Ravens will win the division, but the Steelers are more cohesive and have a few more weapons on offense. It's gonna be a close one, though, just like it was last season.

AFC South

• Colts - The big story in Indy is that Peyton Manning won't be playing when the season starts. Kerry Collins will have to shake the rust off pretty quickly for the Colts to stay on track.
  
• Texans - They've got a killer offense with QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson, and last year's rushing champion, Arian Foster. What kept the Texans out of contention last year, however, was their defense. Will CB Jonathan Joseph and S Danieal Manning be enough to turn around a pass defense that was dead last in the league?
  
• Jaguars - Remind me never to play poker with Jack Del Rio! David Garrard is out at QB after a last-minute cut, and Luke McCown is now the starter in Jacksonville. Losing WR Mike Sims-Walker to the Rams doesn't help their passing game much, either. The Jags did, however, upgrade their defense with the additions of LB's Paul Posluszny and Clint Session, DE Matt Roth, and FS Dawan Landry.
  
• Titans - With the drama of RB Chris Johnson's holdout now behind them, the Titans can now focus on trying to improve after what has been a disappointing last two seasons. Tennessee is counting on Matt Hasselbeck to hold down the fort until rookie Jake Locker is ready to take the reins at quarterback. The Titans's hopes this season rest on their defense, led by CB Cortland Finnegan and FS Michael Griffin. It helped that they picked up LB Barrett Ruud to replace Stephen Tulloch, as well as SS Jordan Babineaux.
  

Division Winner: Texans. All four teams in this division have some sort of issue. The Colts and Texans both had issues on defense, but with Manning's injury and Garrard's release by the Jags, Houston is now the only team with a solid quarterback situation. Even if Manning was still playing, I was going to consider the Colts' era of division dominance over anyway. The Jaguars are still a work in progress, especially on offense, but things are looking up for them. The Titans need to shore up their defensive line, and the Colts' have practically no defense at all. Houston at least took some measures in the offseason to address its issues on defense, making them the most well-rounded team in the division. I really think the Texans have what it takes to make their first playoff appearance in franchise history this year.

AFC West

• Broncos - An absolute train wreck last season under Josh McDaniels. Hopefully, new head coach John Fox can get Denver back on the right track. They still haven't quite figured out their quarterback situation and where backup Tim Tebow fits in with this franchise. We'll see how long Kyle Orton lasts. Defense shows some promise, but don't expect any miracles in the Mile High City just yet.
  
• Chiefs - Kansas City had the league's top rushing attack, and their passing game got better with the addition of WR Steve Breaston. Their defense, however, still needs some time to grow.
  
• Raiders - It looked like things were looking up for the Raiders last season. On offense, RB Darren McFadden and WR's Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey show a lot of promise, and former Giants TE Kevin Boss should also contribute greatly. The big question is how Oakland will handle the loss of their top defensive player, CB Nnamdi Asomugha, to the Eagles.
  
• Chargers - No L.T.? No problem! The Chargers still led the league in both offense and defense last season, but their abysmal performance on special teams kept them out of the playoffs. Their offense lost RB Darren Sproles to the Saints, but Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert are more than ready to shoulder the load. LB Takeo Spikes adds more punch to an already ferocious defense. If PK Nate Kaeding can overcome his perennial tendency to choke in the playoffs, San Diego could very well hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.

Division Winner: Chargers. With their special teams woes hopefully fixed this season, and very little major turnover on either side of the ball, there shouldn't be anything stopping San Diego from dominating opponents this season. The Chiefs could possibly be in contention for a wild-card spot.

Wild Cards
I'm considering the Patriots, Ravens, and Chiefs for the two wild-card spots. The Jaguars, Titans, Broncos, and Raiders should be more competitive in a year or so. The Colts might be in contention if Peyton Manning can get back to Pro Bowl form early enough, but that's a pretty big "if" at this point in time. The Ravens look pretty solid on both sides of the ball (they just have the misfortune of being stuck in the same division as the Steelers), so I'll give them the fifth seed easily. Which leaves KC and the Pats, which both have strong, dynamic offenses but need a little work on defense. Tom Brady vs. his former backup Matt Cassel... interesting... Gotta go with Brady on this one. It's kind of a no-brainer. Besides, New England's defense is just a notch better than Kansas City's.
Fifth Seed: Ravens
Sixth Seed: Patriots

Playoff Predictions

Seeding: 1) Chargers, 2) Steelers, 3) Texans, 4) Jets, 5) Ravens, 6) Patriots
Wild Card: Texans over Patriots, Ravens over Jets.
Divisional: Chargers over Ravens, Steelers over Texans.
AFC Championship: Chargers over Steelers. (Hate to bet against my own team, but I'm afraid Pittsburgh's failure to address its cornerback situation will cost them in the end.)
Superbowl XLVI: Chargers over Packers.

Stay tuned for my picks for Week 1. I'm off to a good start so far with the Packers' win over the Saints on Thursday night.

Stay frosty, y'all! And GO TIGERS!!!

B-)