NFL Week 12 Predictions

With most of the leftovers from Thanksgiving dinner safely digested (hopefully!), we can now turn our attention to the rest of this week's NFL games.  I went 9-5 last week and 2-1 on Thanksgiving Day, which puts me at 97-66 (59.5 %) this season so far. 

Falcons over Vikings
Bengals over Browns
Panthers over Colts

•  Not even a bad defense can doom Carolina's chances of winning this week.  Cam Newton should make short work of a Colts defense that has given up more points than any other team in the league this season. 

Texans over Jaguars

• The race for the AFC South got a little more interesting this week after Texans QB Matt Schaub went down for the season with a foot injury, leaving Houston's playoff hopes in the hands of Matt Leinart.  The good news for the Texans is that not only will WR Andre Johnson be returning, but their top-ranked defense will be up against the league's worst offense. 

Jets over Bills

•  Both of these teams have faltered lately, but the Jets have already shown that they can bounce back from a slump.  This game could very well make or break the once-promising Bills' playoff chances. 

Cardinals over Rams
Titans over Buccaneers
Raiders over Bears

• With QB Jay Cutler done for the season with a thumb injury, the Bears won't be able to match the Raiders' offense.  Oakland's running game has been absolutely phenomenal this season. 

Seahawks over Redskins
Patriots over Eagles
Broncos over Chargers

• With the Chargers faltering, and the Chiefs plagued by yet another season-ending injury, the Broncos just might be the dark-horse candidate to edge out Oakland for the AFC West title.  Maybe Tim Tebow was just the shot in the arm that Denver needed.  

Steelers over Chiefs

• The Chiefs just can't catch a break, can they?  Not only have they lost RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry, but now they'll have to ride out the rest of this catastrophe of a season without QB Matt Cassell.  It's now up to Tyler Palko to restore hope to the Kansas City faithful - a daunting task against the Steelers' second-ranked defense.  Then again, with the way Pittsburgh has been playing the last few years, I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs pulled off an upset. 

Saints over Giants

• The Giants have been surprisingly inconsistent this season, and they'll be without RB Ahmad Bradshaw and possibly WR Mario Manningham on Monday night.  That doesn't bode well when you're facing the league's top offense in New Orleans. 

Halftime Hullabaloo in Detroit

A few weeks ago, all hell broke loose in Detroit when the NFL announced that Nickelback would be performing during halftime of the Lions' Thanksgiving Day game.  There was even a petition started on Change.org by a University of Michigan student to get a different act for the halftime show.  I'd just like to say... Really?  For one thing, that website was intended to be used for legitimate humanitarian purposes, not for something as trivial as who's performing at a halftime show.  More importantly, I'm more than a little miffed about all the bitching from the people of Detroit, because Nickelback happens to be my favorite band, and I'm really looking forward to seeing them perform on Thursday afternoon. 

I haven't seen this much hatred for a musical group since my classmates in middle school taunted me mercilessly because I listened to N*Sync (see "Boy Bands", 29 May 2010), and frankly, I don't understand why.  I know that a lot of their music is about partying, sex, and drugs, but isn't all that and much worse things the main theme of the entire hip-hop genre these days?  Moreover, most of Nickelback's more popular songs, such as "If Everyone Cared" and their newest single "When We Stand Together", are not only absent these kind of adult topics, but are actually pretty meaningful and thought-provoking if you actually listen to the lyrics.  My favorite song has been "Gotta Be Somebody" (which I currently have as my ringtone), because (until recently), it was a song that I could relate to as someone who'd been single all his life.  A lot of people just don't like their style of music, to which I say, hey, that's your opinion.  Different people have different tastes in music, and I respect that, but that's no reason to protest the halftime performance of a football game.  I mean, did anyone in Dallas start a petition to stop the Jonas Brothers (who, in my opinion - and I'm sure a lot of people will back me up on this - sound more like the Jonas Sisters) from performing during the Cowboys' Thanksgiving game in 2008?  No.  So why the big deal now? 

I'm aware of Detroit's rich music history, and I can somewhat understand the desire to have someone local perform at the halftime show, rather than a band from Canada.  But again, look at the halftime performers for the Dallas games in recent years.  Neither Carrie Underwood (Oklahoma), the Jonas Brothers (New Jersey), nor Daughtry (North Carolina) are from Texas, but no one had a problem with any of them performing at halftime.  Not to mention that the Goo Goo Dolls, who performed at Detroit's halftime show in 2007, are from Buffalo, but no one was up in arms then.  So why all the fuss now?  If Detroit really wanted to promote their local music, why did they have the Rolling Stones (who are not even from the U.S., and, at a combined age of over 250, are way too old to be dancing around on stage anyway) perform during halftime of Superbowl XL?  My point is, it's not going to kill the people of Detroit to have an outside artist performing during their Thanksgiving game. 

So to all those folks in Detroit who don't want to see Nickelback perform at halftime this Thanksgiving, I offer these four words:  F@#$%in' deal with it!  If you don't want to hear them, you can just change the channel (or better yet, turn off your TV and enjoy some quality time with loved ones) if you're watching at home; or, if you're at the stadium, use that time to go to the restrooms or the concession stands.  Or maybe even - gasp! - just watch the show, and who knows?  You might actually like one of Nickelback's songs if you give them a chance.  At any rate, the people of Detroit should, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, just be thankful they even get to host a Thanksgiving Day game at all, because with the way the Lions have been playing the last ten years, they don't really deserve to have one! 

Okay, I'm done ranting.  Now I can actually enjoy my Thanksgiving.  In spite of all the hardship I've been through this year, I've got a lot to be thankful for - my health, my family, my friends, my amazing girlfriend, and all of y'all out there in Reader Land who take the time to read my blog.  Have a happy Thanksgiving, and as always, stay frosty, y'all! 

B-)

NFL Week 12 Predictions (Special Thanksgiving Edition)

When you think of Thanksgiving, three words that begin with the letter "F" come to mind: food, family, and of course, FOOTBALL!!!  And this Thanksgiving Day, we've actually got some games that are capable of keeping us out of our inevitable food-induced comas, which makes it a little harder for me to make my predictions, but I'll try my best.  So here goes:

Lions over Packers

• For the first time in over a decade, the Lions are in legitimate contention for the playoffs on Thanksgiving Day.  What makes this game even more exciting is that the undefeated Packers are coming to town.  Both of these teams are very good offensively, but Green Bay's pass defense is second-to-last in the league, which could make for a field day for Matthew Stafford and the Lions.  Call me crazy, but I think I just might smell an upset in the works... 

Cowboys over Dolphins

• Both of these teams are riding a three-game winning streak, though Miami's might be a little more impressive because they were 0-7 before that.  QB Matt Moore has done a phenomenal job these last few weeks, and the Dolphins have been playing lights-out on defense, having gone three straight games without giving up a touchdown.  However, all three of those wins have come against teams that are bordering on the mediocre (Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo), so it remains to be seen if the 'Fins really have improved on defense.  Tony Romo has put up some pretty good numbers for the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but the Dolphins are 5-1 when playing on Turkey Day.  It was a tough decision, but I'm picking Dallas on the strength of their schedule - they're the only team to have beat the 49ers this season, and they've held their own against some of the tougher teams like New England and Detroit.  

Ravens over 49ers

• As if the other two games weren't tough enough to predict, this Battle of the Brothers Harbaugh had me pondering for quite some time.  If you analyze the offense-versus-defense matchups, the teams balance each other out.  Baltimore has the better passing offense and passing defense, while San Francisco has the better running game and the league's top run defense - not that any of those have been lacking for either side, though.  The Ravens have more sacks, while the Niners have more takeaways.  Ravens LB Ray Lewis is questionable for the game, but Baltimore still held its own without him against the Bengals last week.  In the end, I have to go with John and the Ravens over Jim and the 49ers on account of both experience and home-field advantage.  

Enjoy the games and the food, and have a happy Thanksgiving!  Stay frosty, y'all! 

B-)

NFL Week 11 Predictions

Last week, I was 9-7 with my predictions, bringing me to 86-60 (58.9 %) overall.  Onto this week:

Jets over Broncos

• Denver's strength has been its running game, which is a surprising second in the league.  But with both Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno hurt, the Broncos won't have much of a chance against New York's defense.  

Ravens over Bengals

• Baltimore has a habit of playing down to the level its competition this season.  Which means they should be just fine against Cincinnati, which lost CB Leon Hall for the season and will probably be without WR A.J. Green for a few weeks.  

Jaguars over Browns

• Interesting Fact: Four of the top six defenses are in the AFC North.  The other two - Houston and Jacksonville - are from the AFC South.  What this means is that this will likely be a low-scoring game between two teams whose offenses are in the league's bottom three.  The Jags have the advantage, though, because they have a decent rushing offense behind Maurice Jones-Drew, while Cleveland's run defense is 30th in the NFL.  

Lions over Panthers

• The Lions had better get their act together soon, or their fairy-tale start to the season could have a not-so-happy ending.  Fortunately for them, they've got Carolina this week. 

Packers over Buccaneers

• I doubt the Pack will go undefeated this season, with the schedule they've got for the second half.  But I'm pretty sure they can handle the inconsistent Bucs this week.  The real test will come next Thursday at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.  

Bills over Dolphins

• What happened to the Bills?  They started off so well, but they've been stumbling lately.  Though the bigger surprise might be the Dolphins winning two in a row.  This one may not be as one-sided as it might seem. 

Raiders over Vikings

• The Raiders are only one game ahead of all of the other three teams in the AFC West, but they have a chance to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division in a game that will feature a lot of running.  

Cowboys over Redskins

• All of a sudden, the 'Boys are back in the thick of things, while the 'Skins are watching yet another season circle the drain. 

49ers over Cardinals

• I'm calling it right now - Jim Harbaugh for Coach of the Year.  

Rams over Seahawks

• Neither of these teams have been much to write home about this season, though the 'Hawks are coming off of an upset win over Baltimore.  My gut tells me to pick the Rams for some odd reason, so that's what I'm gonna do.  

Falcons over Titans

• If Chris Johnson can keep playing like he did last week, the Titans have a pretty good chance to make the playoffs.  Then again, it was against the Panthers.  I don't see that happening this week against the Falcons, who have one of the league's better run defenses and a more consistent offense.  

Bears over Chargers 

• Chicago's been a pleasant surprise these last few weeks, especially after beating Detroit.  The Chargers, on the other hand, have been rather disappointing.  Bears kick returner Devin Hester must be looking at San Diego's special teams with the same facial expressions I have when I see a plate full of freshly cooked bacon. 

Giants over Eagles

• Is it just me, or is NBC biased towards the NFC East?  Because how else are we getting so many Sunday Night games with NFC East teams?  Also, how God-awful do you have to be to lose to Arizona? 

Patriots over Chiefs

• The Pats have rebounded from their two-game losing streak, while the Chiefs have gone back to losing again.  Another Monday Night no-contest.  Ho-hum...

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Normally, I don't like to make my picks this early in the week, since there's still plenty of time for late developments like player injuries that can affect the outcome of a game.  But since Thursday Night Football is starting up this week, I have to at least get my prediction for that game posted.  Which I would have done earlier this evening, until I got distracted following the news about the scandal at Penn State and the firing of Joe Paterno.  So here's what I'm gonna do: I'll post my prediction for Thursday's game tonight, then add on to this post later in the week once I have more time and energy.  My loyal readers will just have to trust me that I'm not changing my predictions after the fact.

A quick recap on the standings: Last week, I went a pitiful 7-7 with my predictions.  Or, to be a little more accurate, 7-5 with the predictions I posted, because I somehow forgot to post predictions for the Falcons-Colts and Broncos-Raiders games for some odd reason.  So for the sake of maintaining the integrity of this venture, I'll count those two as incorrect predictions, because to count them as ties would just seem kind of odd.  Which means that I'm now 77-53 (59.2 %) in my predictions so far this season.

And now, onto Thursday night's pick:

Chargers over Raiders

• Let's face it, neither of these teams' offenses are picture-perfect.  Chargers QB Phillip Rivers leads the league in turnovers, and Carson Palmer has struggled since being thrown into Oakland's starting job two weeks ago.  San Diego has been playing better defense, while Oakland's has struggled this season.  That makes it a tough task for the Raiders' offense, which will be without the services of RB Darren McFadden.  The Raiders beat the Chargers without him last year, but that was back when they still had a decent defense. 

Tune in later this week for the rest of my picks.  Til then, stay frosty, y'all!

B-)
______
UPDATE, 11/12: As promised, here's my picks for the rest of the weekend.  I'm not going into all the details tonight because I haven't been feeling too well this evening and badly need some sleep.  Though if you are curious about why I picked a certain team, you can always leave a comment and I'll try to respond with my rationale tomorrow evening.

Saints over Falcons
Titans over Panthers
Steelers over Bengals
Rams over Browns
Bills over Cowboys
Colts over Jaguars
Broncos over Chiefs
Dolphins over Redskins
Eagles over Cardinals
Texans over Buccaneers
Ravens over Seahawks
Lions over Bears
49ers over Giants
Jets over Patriots
Packers over Vikings

Stay frosty, y'all!

B-)

NFL Week 9 Predictions

The NFL certainly delivered last week like it always does on Halloween weekend.  There were definitely some thrilling games, like the winless Rams getting an upset win over the Saints and the Steelers toppling Tom Brady and the Patriots.  We also saw a lot of things that were just plain scary, like the Eagles' defense coming back from the dead to rip apart the Cowboys and the Ravens coming back from 21 points down to beat the Cardinals.  And here's something else that's shocking: I only missed two picks last weekend (11-2), bringing my season record to 70-46 (60.3 %).  There's a lot more excitement in store at the midpoint of the season, so let's get right to it.

Bills over Jets

• Wait... Buffalo's leading the AFC East?  This is why I love the NFL.  Anywho, I'm picking the Bills, since their offense has a little more punch than the Jets' does.  Should be a good show, regardless. 

Texans over Browns

• There's talk that WR Andre Johnson might be back for the Texans.  Not like they'll need him this week...

Chiefs over Dolphins

• Just a few weeks ago, the Chiefs looked ready to send Todd Haley packing.  Gotta give him a lot of credit for the job he's done to get Kansas City back on track.  Maybe Tony Sparano could learn a thing or two from him this Sunday. 

Cowboys over Seahawks

• Tony Romo is his own worst enemy, but with the way the Seahawks are going, even a botched hold on a field goal attempt shouldn't ruin the Cowboys' chances of winning too much. 

49ers over Redskins

• I remember some experts saying at the beginning of the season that the lockout could have a negative impact on rookie head coaches because they didn't have as much time for their teams to learn their systems.  Guess Jim Harbaugh never got the memo. 

Saints over Buccaneers

•  That was a pretty epic display of mediocrity last week by a New Orleans office that piled 62 points on the Colts just the week before.  But the Saints should rebound against a Bucs team that's struggling to find its identity, with RB LeGarrette Blount battling an MCL injury and no real big-play wide receivers. 

Bengals over Titans

• The AFC North race has gotten a little more crowded this season thanks to the Bengals' defense.  The Titans, meanwhile, don't look as tough as they did a few weeks ago.  Where's Chris Johnson when they need him? 

Patriots over Giants

• It's pretty tough to call this rematch of Superbowl XLII.  Eli Manning's kind of flown under the radar this season, but he's actually got the third highest passer rating in the league, trailing only Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and his opponent this week, Tom Brady.  Also working in New York's favor is the fact that four of the last five Superbowl rematches were won by the same team that won the Superbowl, with the lone exception being the Bears beating the Superbowl XLI champion Colts in 2008.   New England's pass defense has been struggling this season, none more so than last week at Pittsburgh, but they're pretty good at rebounding from defeat.  Since 2006, not counting playoff games, New England is 16-2 coming off a loss, and 19-3 if you include the playoffs.  

Packers over Chargers

• These were the two teams I picked to play in the Superbowl, but so far, only the Packers have lived up to my expectations.  The Chargers have gone downhill with back-to-back losses to the Jets and the resurgent Chiefs. 

Rams over Cardinals

• Both these teams shocked the world last week.  The Rams pulled off a stunning upset over New Orleans, while Arizona let a 21-point lead slip away.  Only one of these one-win teams looks like it's finally got its act together. 

Ravens over Steelers

• Given the Ravens' struggles the last two weeks - losing to the Jags and having to come back from 21 down against the Cardinals - and the way the Pittsburgh handled the Patriots last week, I'd probably be picking the Steelers to win this rematch in all other circumstances.  But with three of Pittsburgh's four starting linebackers (James Harrison, James Farrior, and Lamar Woodley) not expected to play this weekend... well, let's just say I don't like those odds. 

Eagles over Bears

• Philly's defense may not necessarily be the "Dream Team" everyone was calling it at the beginning of the season, but they certainly delivered against Dallas last week.  The Bears have been hanging in there this season, but can their defense handle the speed of DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy? 

Point-Counterpoint: What Makes a Fair-Weather Fan?

So my plan for this evening was to post the pictures from my church's Trunk-or-Treat party last Sunday on my Facebook page.  But once again, I made the stupid mistake of looking through my News Feed before I even started, just for a cursory glance at what my "friends" were up to.  That's when I stumbled upon the following video that was posted by a "friend" of mine who happens to be a Baltimore Ravens fan:

What the guy in the video - who goes by the moniker "Goob" - is trying to prove is that most Pittsburgh Steelers fans are fair-weather fans.  Quite frankly, I'm more than a little insulted by the implication, especially because the interviews in this video that "Goob" conducts with Steelers fans in three bars at NC State prove absolutely nothing.  Therefore, at the risk of sounding like a complete dumb@$$, allow me break things down, one argument at a time, in a little segment I'd like to call "Point-Counterpoint." 

Point: Most of the fans interviewed have never been to a Steelers game, or have even been to Pittsburgh for that matter, and that makes them fair-weather fans.  
Counterpoint:  1) Have you ever considered that, with the economy the way it is, most fans who live far away maybe can't afford to spend their hard-earned money on frivolities such as game tickets and airfare?  2) There are also such things as work and school that also make flying to Pittsburgh and back less of a priority.  3) It can be pretty hard to get tickets when your stadium is nearly filled to capacity every week.  4) It's not our fault if the networks where we live choose not to show the Steelers games.  Before you suggest buying NFL Ticket or something like that, see number (1). 

Point: There's so many Steelers fans who live far away from Pittsburgh, so they clearly just picked the team that was winning at the moment.  
Counterpoint:  Not every Steelers fan who's from outside the Pittsburgh area is a fan by conversion.  Many of these fans were, or are descendants of, workers who were displaced from Pittsburgh when businesses closed and jobs were cut (especially in the steel and coal industries), had to move elsewhere to find work, and brought their sports allegiances with them wherever they went.  That's why the Steeler Nation is everywhere, even outside the U.S.  These fans still stuck with their team even through the lean years. 

Point: Most of the fans interviewed did not seem to be very knowledgeable about the Steelers, so we can automatically assume they're just fair-weather fans.  
Counterpoint: No matter where you go, or what you ask about, I guarantee you're gonna find at least one dummy who can't answer even the most basic trivia questions about the given subject.  Just watch any episode of The Tonight Show when they do  "JayWalking."  For example, there was that one woman who was a history major at Carnegie Mellon, and didn't know who Betsy Ross was.  But I digress.  My point is, I betcha I could go into a Ravens bar and ask random people questions about their team that they couldn't answer.  I grew up a Steelers fan because that's how my parents (who are both from western Pennsylvania, my dad having grown up just a few miles from the 'Burgh) raised me, and there was a lot about the Steelers that I didn't know until I was in high school or college.  And about that guy who went to the game at Three Rivers and referred to their current stadium as "the new Heinz Field" - by "new", he clearly meant "currently in use", not "just opened this season".  He was trying to distinguish the current stadium from the since-demolished previous stadium; he just didn't couldn't find the right choice of words - an innocent mistake that I'm sure happens to everyone.  A simple instance of cerebral flatulence like that does not necessarily make him a fair-weather fan. 

Point: The Steelers fans interviewed said they hate watching their team lose, and criticized Pittsburgh's inconsistent performance this season.  Ergo, they're all fair-weather fans. 
Counterpoint: Of course we hate it when the Steelers lose!  Last time I checked, I don't think there was a fan of any sports team who could say he enjoyed watching his team lose, unless he was pulling a Pete Rose.  There's nothing wrong with expecting a consistent performance from your team from game to game, or constructively criticizing the mistakes that your team makes.  After all, no one's perfect.  There's always room for improvement.  None of the people interviewed said that they were renouncing their allegiance to Pittsburgh if they lost, which is what a fair-weather fan really is. 

• Rebuttal: But Mike, you switched from being a Pirates fan to a Rays fan.  That sounds pretty fair-weather to me!  
• Mike's Rebuttal: Let me clarify something.  The reason I stopped being a die-hard Pirates fan was not because they haven't had a winning season in 19 years.  It was because I was fed up with the way the team was being run, particularly with the fact that every time a good player emerged on their team, he would be traded away within a few years for a bunch of minor league so-called "prospects" who never lived up to their potential.  I picked the Rays because, when I'm not rooting for my own teams, I almost always root for the underdogs, hoping that they can overcome their perennial mediocrity and provide that "Cinderella story" kind of inspiration to others.  I also found the Rays an interesting team to follow.  If my sole intention had been to be a fan of a winning team, doncha think I'd have become a Yankees or Phillies fan instead?  And besides, I still support the Pirates and would like to see them win; the only difference now is that I no longer feel guilty about laughing at them when they inevitably fall apart in the middle of the season.  [Am I seriously debating with myself just now?]  

Closing Argument:
I'm not saying that there are no fair-weather fans in Steeler Nation (since my name's not Mike-moud Paul-medinejad).  But as a lifelong Steelers fan who was born and raised outside of the Steel City, I resent the stereotypes that "Goob" insinuates in his little "documentary" about most of us Pittsburgh fans being merely "fair-weather fans."  The arguments made in the above video have little basis in logic whatsoever, because they do not fit the definition of a fair-weather fan, which is a fan who supports a team only when it is highly successful, and renounces said allegiance when that team is not as successful as one would like it to be. 

I, of course, welcome any and all friendly debate on this topic, and encourage those of y'all out there in Reader Land who may disagree with my arguments to comment on my post; all I ask is that you please do so in a respectful and civilized manner. 

Stay frosty, y'all!  And GO STEELERS! 

B-)